Written by Prospects for North Africa and the Middle East
We’ve been reporting recently on the situation in North Africa with regard to the creation of refugees from those countries which have already managed to boot their unpopular leaders from office. Tunisia was first and (mostly) economic uncertainty there has resulted in Lampedusa, the traditional destination for Tunisian refugees located between Italy and North Africa, being overwhelmed by fleeing citizens. Egypt was next but appears to be handling the transition in a a manner acceptable to its people.
The following is a chart showing the countries across the region and the relative unhappiness with their current governments (the Unrest Index column):
What it demonstrates is that every country in the region could face problems. Some are more likely than others – Saudi Arabia for example doesn’t yet seem set for revolution. Noticeably Egypt and Tunisia were not even that high on the index yet the Tunisian leader was gone in a matter of days and it didn’t take much longer in Egypt.
So with regards to refugees, how will the European Union in particular prepare itself if, one after another, these countries bordering Europe’s Southern states start to revolt. Spain and Italy know they are in the firing line and the EU has already agreed to help Italy’s tiny Lampedusa to take the strain – but that’s just from one country. And where will Middle Eastern refugees go? Iranians might be able to make it Turkey but where are Yeminis going to go? Perhaps back across the Red Sea to Somalia, crossing paths with the boats bringing Somalian refugees to Yemen.
There’s a lot to think about here and even Southern Turkey may not be the safe haven fleeing Iranians may be looking for. When you’re surrounded by strange and unstable countries – Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan – where do you run to?
The next few days, weeks and months are going to be interesting ones.